Monday, August 25, 2008

Gold extends losses as oil drops; dollar weak

Gold Bars
Australia - SINGAPORE, Aug 25 - Gold fell further on Monday, losing some of its safe-haven appeal as the U.S. dollar rose against other currencies, while a weaker oil also prompted investors to ditch their bullion holdings.
-- Gold fell to $821.05/823.05 an ounce from $827.00/828.60 an ounce late in New York on Friday, when it slipped more than $5 an ounce.

-- Gold futures for December delivery on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange lost $6.8 an ounce to $826.70.

-- Sterling hit a two-year low against the dollar on Monday, extending its losses from Friday when data showed Britain's economy unexpectedly stalled in the second quarter, suggesting a recession could be looming.

-- Crude oil prices fell more than 5.4 percent on Friday in the biggest one-day slide since 2004 as dealers turned their focus to rising supply levels and weakening global demand. -- Spot platinum was unchanged at $1,425.50/1,445.50 an ounce.

-- Spot palladium inched down to $283.00/291.00 an ounce from $285.00/293.00 an ounce.

-- Silver eased to $13.26/13.32 an ounce from $13.33/13.41 an ounce late in New York.

-- The most active Tokyo gold contract for June 2009 delivery on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange fell 17 yen per gram to 2,920 yen. Precious metals prices at 0017 GMT Metal Last Change Pct chg YTD pct chg Turnover Spot Gold 819.80 -2.30 -0.28 -1.55 Spot Silver 13.26 -0.06 -0.45 -10.22 Spot Platinum 1425.50 0.00 +0.00 -6.22 Spot Palladium 283.00 0.00 +0.00 -23.10 TOCOM Gold 2919.00 -18.00 -0.61 -4.61 3685 TOCOM Platinum 4987.00 -99.00 -1.95 -6.59 2050 TOCOM Silver 471.20 -11.10 -2.30 -12.90 46 TOCOM Palladium 1017.00 -20.00 -1.93 -24.72 41 Euro/Dollar 1.4740 Dollar/Yen 110.07 TOCOM prices in yen per gram, except TOCOM silver which is priced in yen per 10 grams. Spot prices in $ per ounce. (Reporting by Lewa Pardomuan; Editing by Anshuman Daga)

Gold Prices Fall for a Second Day in London as the Dollar Rises

Gold Prices Fall for a Second Day in London as the Dollar Rises
Aug. 25 -- Gold fell in London for a second day as a rally in the dollar eroded the appeal of the precious metals as an alternative asset. Silver was little changed.

Gold, priced in dollars, often moves in the opposite direction to the U.S. currency. Bullion jumped 4.5 percent last week, the biggest weekly gain in six months, while the dollar index fell 0.5 percent. Oil dropped by more than $6 a barrel on Aug. 22, the most in percentage terms for more than three years.

``Gold is following the movement in oil, which fell sharply in New York last Friday,'' K.C. Wong, trader at Standard Bank Asia Ltd., said by telephone from Singapore today.

Bullion for immediate-delivery fell as much as 0.7 percent to $817.58 an ounce and was at $822.85 at 11:24 a.m. in London. Silver for immediate delivery traded at $13.39 an ounce, up 0.2 percent.

The dollar also rose for a second day against the euro on speculation a drop in oil prices will support the U.S. economy.

The dollar gained to $1.4767 per euro in London from $1.4793 in New York on Aug. 22. The U.S. currency advanced to 109.93 yen from 110.07 yen.

Gold has been supported in the first half by low levels of sales by central banks, Dan Smith, a metals analyst at Standard Chartered Plc in London, said in a report on Aug. 22.

``Latest figures show that in the 10 months to July sales were just 317 tons, which is equivalent to annualized total 380 tons,'' Smith said. ``This is well below the agreed ceiling of 500 tons per year under the Central Bank Gold Agreement and compares to sales of 476 tons in the previous CBGA year.''

Euro May Stall

Gold may rise for a second straight week on speculation the dollar's rally against the euro will stall, boosting the precious metal's appeal as an alternative investment, according to a Bloomberg News survey on Aug. 21 and Aug. 22.

Twenty-two of 28 traders, investors and analysts surveyed from Mumbai to Chicago advised buying gold. Five respondents said to sell and one was neutral.

Gold for December delivery was down 0.7 percent to $828.20 an ounce in after-hours electronic trading on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange in London. Bullion for December delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 2.4 percent to 182.17 yuan a gram ($827.26 an ounce).

In Japan, gold for June delivery on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange fell 0.7 percent to at 2,916 yen a gram ($825.08 an ounce).

Gold heads lower on U.S. dollar

Gold heads lower on U.S. dollar
SINGAPORE - Gold dropped more than 1 percent on Monday, losing some of its safe-haven appeal as the U.S. dollar strengthened against other currencies, but a steadier oil limited the falls.

Bullion could find support around $800 an ounce, with the help of buying from jewelers ahead of the festive seasons especially in main consumer, India. Dealers also reported tight supply for gold bars in Singapore and Hong Kong.

Gold slipped to $821.90/822.90 an ounce from $827.00/828.60 an ounce late in New York on Friday, but was off nine-month lows of around $773 hit in mid-August.

Earlier on Monday, the metal dipped to $817.05, down 1.2 percent.

"Gold remains relatively resilient against oil's volatile downward move. This may suggest that buying interest is surfacing just above $800," said William Kwan, bullion director at Gold Capital Management in Singapore.

Oil was steady above $115 a barrel, having fallen 5.4 percent on Friday, the biggest one-day drop in percentage terms since December 27, 2004, on easing supply concerns, but tensions between the United States and Russia would lend support.

Demand for gold in India normally picks up ahead of Diwali, the Hindu festival of lights in October, as people buy gold for auspicious reasons. Also, many Hindu marriages are likely to be held between September and November, said dealers.

"I guess the $800-psychological level support will come into play again. I believe physical demand for gold is likely to remain good and perhaps the shortage may support the market a bit," said Adrian Koh, analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore."If we start moving below $810, we will probably move to $800 very soon and perhaps gold could retest to the $770s again," he said.

New York gold futures lost $7.0 an ounce to $826.50.

The dollar hit a two-year high against sterling after data last week showed Britain's economy was stalling, raising the prospect for monetary easing by the Bank of England.

Spot platinum dropped to $1,402.00/1,422.00 an ounce from $1,425.50/1,445.50 an ounce late in New York but was off an 11-month low around $1,296 hit last week.

"Near-term support for platinum should come in around the $1,350-level, and if we do move below those levels, we could see another bout of selling towards $1,250 to $1,300," said Koh of Phillip Futures.

In industry news, South Africa's Northam Platinum (NHMJ.J: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) posted a 12 percent rise in earnings for the year ending in June, on high metal prices, despite weaker output. The miner forecast a rise in output and prices for the current financial year.

Spot palladium was steady from late New York levels at $285.50/293.50 an ounce. Silver fell to $13.31/13.36 an ounce from $13.33/13.41 an ounce late in New York.

Indian rupee weakens as stronger dollar weighs

MUMBAI, Aug 25 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee weakened on Monday as the dollar rose against a host of currencies, with heavy demand for the U.S. unit from local oil refiners adding to the downward pressure.

The partially convertible rupee ended at 43.79/80 per dollar, 0.8 percent weaker than Friday's close of 43.425/435. It hit a 17-month low of 43.87 last week.

The rupee has shed 2.8 percent in August, taking its losses to 10 percent so far in 2008.

"Rupee depreciated due to the dollar's recovery against majors and other Asian currencies. There was also some dollar demand from oil companies and squaring of short speculative dollar positions,"said L. Subramanian, the chief dealer with ICICI Bank.

One-month offshore non-deliverable forward contracts PYNDF were quoting at 43.96/44.03, weaker than the onshore rate.

The British pound hit two-year lows against a broadly stronger dollar on Monday, with stalled UK economic activity seen as another example of growing economic malaise outside the United StatesDealers said dollar demand from oil refiners, the largest buyers of the U.S. currency in the local market weighed on the local unit.

Oil CLc1, India's biggest import, was trading above $115 as some investors saw buying opportunities after prices posted their biggest one-day slide in percentage terms since 2004 in the previous session. See [O/R].

Indian shares posted a modest gain on Monday after an early rally ran out of steam. Foreigners have been net sellers of more than $7 billion of stocks so far this year, a sharp turnaround from 2007 when record net inflows of $17.4 billion pushed the rupee towards 10-year highs.

Oil rises as dollar weakens

Oil rises as dollar weakens
Oil prices edged up to nearly $115 a barrel Monday as the U.S. dollar lost some ground against the euro and the Japanese yen, making commodities more attractive to investors.

By afternoon in Europe, light, sweet crude for October delivery was up 38 cents to $114.97 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract tumbled $6.59 on Friday to settle at $114.59 a barrel.

Analysts said this week — with U.S. markets headed toward the Labor Day holiday next Monday — would likely be characterized by volatile prices and low trading volumes.

"In the process of trading up and down dramatically, last week, it has become clear that only one factor really matters right now," said analysts at U.S. energy consultancy Cameron Hanover. "That's the dollar."

In a daily market report, Cameron Hanover said oil fundamentals and just about every other factor influencing prices seemed to have taken a back seat to the dollar.

It would take something like a direct hit by a hurricane on oil facilities "to unhook oil from the U.S. currency," the report said. "Big-money investors have turned oil into a proxy for the U.S. dollar."

Unresolved tensions between the U.S. and Russia over the conflict in Georgia caused concerns about supplies in the region and continued to lend support to oil prices, as investors speculate whether oil-rich Russia will use supplies to punish the West.

Russia pulled the bulk of its troops and tanks out Friday under a cease-fire agreement, but built up its forces in and around South Ossetia and Abkhazia, another separatist region. They also left other military posts at locations inside Georgia proper.

A U.S. Navy destroyer loaded with humanitarian aid reached Georgia's Black Sea port of Batumi on Sunday, a move that a Russian general suggested would worsen tensions between the former Cold War foes.

A Monday vote by Russian lawmakers unanimously asking President Dmitry Medvedev to recognize the independence of Georgia's two rebel provinces added to the concerns of energy markets.

Despite the conflict, some analysts said energy flows from Russia to the West were safe.

"We continue to see little chance for oil to be used by Russia as a bargaining tool," said Olivier Jakob of Petromatrix in Switzerland. "Oil is the weapon of last resort, not of first resort ... and it would make no sense for Russia to limit exports of crude or products to European countries."

After gaining early in the session, the U.S. dollar lost ground to the euro and the Japanese yen on Monday.

By afternoon in Europe, the euro rose to $1.4792 from $1.4775 late Friday in New York.

The dollar also fell slightly against the Japanese currency, buying 109.64 yen, down from the 110.03 late Friday in New York.

A falling dollar encourages investors to buy crude oil and other commodities as a hedge against inflation and weakness in the U.S. currency.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures rose 3.22 cents to $3.1633 a gallon, while gasoline prices gained 1.50 cents to $2.8836 a gallon. Natural gas futures fell 6.7 cents to US$7.776 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, October Brent crude was up $1.56 to $115.48 on the ICE Futures exchange

Sunday, August 10, 2008

UK economy 'worse than thought'

Many UK manufacturers face an 'uncomfortable' time, the CBI says.
The CBI, the UK's largest employers' organisation, has warned that the UK economy is deteriorating faster than it previously thought.

There was "no doubt that the mood has darkened in the last two or three months," its director general Richard Lambert warned members in a letter.

Forecasters, including the CBI, had been "over-optimistic" about the economic outlook, he added.

High inflation and slowing growth have prompted fears of a possible recession.


A year ago it seemed reasonable to hope that the worst would be over by now. That has not turned out to be the case
Richard Lambert
CBI

The level of inflation - which most analysts expect to surpass 4% when the July figures are released this week - had taken people "by surprise", Mr Lambert said in the letter, seen by the BBC.

And he added that the credit crunch had been "bigger and broader" than first expected.

"A year ago it seemed reasonable to hope that the worst would be over by now . That has not turned out to be the case."

Growth forecast cut

Economic activity is slowing in all key sectors of the economy, business confidence is waning and falling house prices and tight credit conditions have dented consumer spending.

"This is why most analysts are now suggesting that the economy will at best only manage to stagnate in the coming few quarters, and that the growth prospects through 2009 and into 2010 look no better than anaemic," Mr Lambert said.

The CBI earlier cut its forecast for growth in 2009 from 1% to 0.4%.

And last week the International Monetary Fund again revised down its forecast for UK economic growth this year and next year.

It now expects growth of 1.4% this year and 1.1% in 2009, although the government still expects the figures for both years to be 2% or above.

'Uncomfortable'

"The CBI, along with most other forecasters, has been consistently over-optimistic about the economic outlook over the last 12 months," Mr Lambert added.

He added that there were still many companies who were doing well - especially in the manufacturing of high value items.

But he conceded that it was going to be an "uncomfortable time" for many.

"A sharp economic slowdown is a new experience for many people in government and in business," he said.

Inflation surpasses 12% in India

Rising food prices have caused unrest across India
Inflation has risen above 12% in India despite government efforts to tighten monetary policy.

Annual consumer prices rose by 12.01% in the week ending 26 July, a fresh 13-year high, up from 11.98% the week before - according to official figures.

Successive interest rate rises in recent months have done little to quell inflation, driven higher by escalating food and commodity prices.

Economists warned inflation would rise further before easing next year.

'Apprehension'

Double-digit inflation poses a threat to India's rapid economic progress with government fuel subsidies - designed to cushion people from the impact of rising prices - putting increased pressure on public finances.


Tightening credit in three consecutive quarters have not helped in lowering inflation
Amit Mitra, Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry

Inflation was below 5% a year ago but many economists believe it will peak at close to 14% later this year.

Three interest rate rises since July - which has pushed borrowing costs up by one and a quarter percentage points - have had little impact.

Critics of government policy say the rate hikes have done nothing to address the source of inflationary pressures and, instead, are threatening companies' growth prospects.

"Tightening credit in three consecutive quarters have not helped in lowering inflation," said Amit Mitra, secretary general of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

"If this kind of strict monetary policy is followed further, we are apprehensive," he added.

Although prices are expected to rise further in the short term, India's central bank believes the slowing global economy and the falling oil price will eventually impact on inflation, bringing it down below 10% next spring.

OVL, Mittal, Essar shortlisted for Algerian bid round

Lakshmi Mittal
NEW DELHI: ONGC Videsh, Essar, Oil India and Steel baron Lakshmi N Mittal's investment firm have been shortlisted by Algeria to bid for oil blocks on offer in its latest licensing round.

While OVL, the overseas investment arm of state-run Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC), and OIL have been shortlisted as operators of the oilfields, Mittal Investment Sarl and Essar have been prequalified to participate as financial investors, industry sources said.

OPEC member Algeria is offering 16 zones called parameters for bidding in its 7th exploration and production licensing round, bids for which close on December 3, 2008.

Each zone or parameter contains two to three blocks and in all there are 38 blocks in the 16 zones on offer.

Companies have to make bids for the 16 parameters (zones) and not individual blocks, that would be awarded within two hours of the bid closing on December 3.

Sources said though OVL and Mittal Investment have a joint venture for overseas oil hunt (called ONGC Mittal Energy Ltd), the two have made separate expression of interests. OIL is likely to bid with state refiner Indian Oil Corp.

Algeria intends to sign contracts on December 17, they said but could not identify the foreign companies shortlisted for the bidding round.

The round, the first since April 2005, has been keenly awaited by multinational companies seeking permits to explore in Algeria, which is among the world's top owners of oil and gas reserves and a major gas exporter to Europe.

"The selected zones are in different Algerian sedimentary petroleum basins offering a high potential in petroleum resources," said a statement by the Energy and Mines Ministry's National Agency for the Valorisation of Hydrocarbon Resources (ALNAFT).

'Biofuel can ensure India's energy security'


BANGALORE: When Henry Ford fuelled his car with ethanol way back in the 1930s, some admired him while others considered it a stunt. Eight decades later, Indian experts working on biofuels as an alternative source of energy feel everyone can be a Ford.

But there are many hurdles in the way as myths and misconceptions surround use of biofuel as an energy source.

"Myths and misconceptions about biofuels are coming in the way of promoting them as an alternative source of energy," K.D. Gupta, chairman of the New Delhi-based Institute of Applied Systems and Rural Development (IASRD), told IANS on the sidelines of a seminar on

Biofuel for Sustainable Growth here.

"We have to demystify the issues at stake to ensure our energy security in future," Gupta observed.

Experts believe biofuel will be the best alternative to the energy crisis arising out of soaring crude prices and depletion of fossil fuels at a faster rate.

"Biofuel can make India self-sufficient in energy source as the product has been proven to be efficient, sustainable, cost-effective and pollution-free," Karnataka Council for Technological Upgradation managing director N. Chandrasekhar said.

As a cleaner burning fuel produced from renewable resources like soybean oil, biofuel can be used alone or blended with other petroleum products like heating oil. It is biodegradable and can be domestically produced.

Other biofuels can be extracted from dry organic matter or combustible oils produced by plants. Alcohol (from fermented sugar), black liquor from paper manufacturing process and wood are some of the sources of bio-organic fuel.

"Biofuels are renewable liquid fuels made from plant matter rather than fossil fuels. Primary biofuels are ethanol and bio-diesel. They help reduce air toxics emissions, greenhouse gas build-up and dependence on imported oil," Gupta explained.

Gupta said biofuel plants such as Jatropha were best cultivated in wastelands and would not impact food production.

"We never encourage farmers to sow biofuel plants in fertile farmland. Plants like Jatropha, Hongai and Neem that yield biofuel require minimum water and maintenance. What's more, animals or insects do not feed on them. And ethanol is a by-product of sugarcane," Gupta pointed out.

Biofuel is cleaner than fossil fuels due to its lower sulphur content.

"As a future source of energy, biofuel has the potential to change urban transportation and bring about a revolution in rural India where farmers can use it to run tractors and derive biogas and organic manure as its residue for lighting, cooking and soil nutrient instead of using toxic fertilisers," Gupta asserted.

Increasing use of biofuels will also enable India to lesson its dependence on oil imports, which account for 73 percent of total fuel consumption.

"The message is yet to spread across. We have decided to conduct sustained campaign across the country," said S.C. Tripathi, IASRD chief patron and former secretary in the petroleum ministry.

"The country's development is correlated to energy use. Once our energy requirements are met, growth can be ensured," he added.

To propagate biofuel cultivation, IASRD has carried out extensive plantation of Jatropha in Gujarat, Haryana, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan and Uttarakhand.

State-run oil marketing firms like Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd and Indian Oil Corporation Ltd have been using five percent of ethanol as an additive in petrol and diesel over the last couple of years.

"We want ethanol content to be increased by another 10 percent in petrol and diesel. The greater the use of ethanol, the more fossil fuels will be eco-friendly. Use of bio-diesel and bio-petrol do not require any change in the vehicle engine," BPCL marketing manager Charles David affirmed.

European Bonds Post Third Weekly Gain on Outlook for ECB Rates

Bernanke, Trichet, Stark, Lacker
European government notes posted a third weekly gain after central bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said economic growth will weaken, prompting investors to reduce wagers on higher borrowing costs this year.

Two-year notes led the advance, pushing the difference in yield with the German 10-year bund to the widest since May 20, after reports this week added to signs growth in the region is faltering. The European Central Bank held its benchmark rate at 4.25 percent on Aug. 7, after which Trichet said expansion will be ``particularly weak'' in the second and third quarters.

``A lot of people took heart from what Trichet had to say about growth, as there was anxiety that he'd be more hawkish,'' said Marc Ostwald, a fixed-income strategist in London at Monument Securities Ltd. ``There is a sense the ECB is giving some ground.''

The yield on the two-year note dropped as much as 7 basis points to 4.03 percent, and was at 4.07 percent by 4 p.m. in London, heading for its biggest weekly drop since the period through Feb. 8. The price of the 4.75 percent note due June 2010 rose 0.02, or 20 euro cents per 1,000-euro ($1,504) face amount, to 101.16.

The yield on the 10-year bund, Europe's benchmark government security, was at 4.26 percent, leaving it 8 basis points lower in the week.

Government bonds pared gains yesterday as some investors bet there was still a risk the ECB will resume raising interest rates to restrain prices and discourage workers from seeking higher wage increases.

`Market Ahead of Itself'

``In the short term, our suspicion is the market has got ahead of itself,'' Sean Maloney, a debt strategist in London at Nomura International Plc, said.

Trichet told a press conference in Frankfurt there is ``no bias'' or ``pre-commitment'' toward future rate movements, repeating what he said July 3 after the previous rate decision. The ECB has observed ``some materialization of risks that we had identified'' he said.

Factory production in Germany rose by less than economists forecast in June, a government report showed Aug. 7. Separate data a day earlier showed factory orders in Europe's largest economy unexpectedly slipped in the same month.

Yield Difference

The difference in yield, or spread, between 10-year German bonds and U.S. Treasuries has narrowed 19 basis points in the past two weeks, to 33 basis points today. German two-year notes, which are more sensitive to interest-rate changes, yielded 19 basis points less than the 10-year bund, compared with 9 basis points a week ago.

The implied yield on the December Euribor futures contract fell 14 basis points in the past week and was last at 4.93 percent, indicating fewer investors expect the ECB to raise interest rates to fight inflation.

Europe's central bank is struggling to contain inflation which, at 4.1 percent, quickened to more than twice its ceiling in July. The fastest consumer-price growth in 16 years has come as the impact of the economic slowdown sparked by the collapse of the U.S. housing market has spread to Europe.

``The ECB press conference was more dovish than the market was anticipating,'' analysts led by Thorsten Weinelt, global head of research and chief strategist at Unicredit Markets & Investment Banking, a unit of Italy's largest lender, wrote in a client note. ``Expect today's price action to be dominated mainly by a re-assessment of yesterday's strong market movements.''

IMF's View

Europe's economy will grow 1.2 percent next year, with growth in Germany, the largest of the 15 nations that share the currency, slowing to 1 percent from 2 percent this year, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Italy's economy unexpectedly shrank in the second quarter, edging it closer to a fourth recession in a decade as households and businesses struggle to cope with more expensive oil.

The economy, the fourth-largest in Europe, contracted 0.3 percent after expanding 0.5 percent in the first quarter, the Rome-based statistics office Istat said yesterday. Economists expected stagnation, according to the median of 22 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. From the same period a year earlier, the economy didn't grow at all.

European government bonds returned investors 2.3 percent this year, while U.S. debt earned 3.1 percent, according to Merrill Lynch & Co.'s EMU Direct Government and U.S. Treasury Masters indexes.

Crude oil losing steam; to fall below $100 a barrel: Analysts


NEW DELHI: Crude oil is on a downward spiral and analysts now see its price slipping below 100-dollar per barrel mark by next month -- a far cry from the forecast of 200-dollar level given a few weeks ago.

With signs of slowdown engulfing most of the economies across the world, declining demand and easing geo-political tensions, the crude prices might return to double-digit figures, analysts believe.

The prices have already slumped by over one-fifth from the record high levels of over 147 dollars on July 11 and slipped below 115 dollar per barrel on New York Mercantile Exchange last week.

As long as the bull-run was on in crude oil market, analysts were forecasting that a level of 200 dollars was not far away and a 150-dollar estimate was being made for October itself.

"Crude has lost quite a lot in the last few weeks and USD 100 a barrel is of course within reach by September with demand falling amid global slowdown," commodity brokerage firm Karvy Comtrade's Research Head Harish Galipelli said.

Demand is expected to come down as major economies like the US have hiked interest rates to contain inflation, Harish said, adding that a similar situation prevails in China as well as India.

A significant rise in dollar against major currencies has also affected prices, he added.

"If demand falls drastically then it is quite possible to touch USD 100 per barrel level in the coming weeks," Religare Commodities' Commodity Business Head Jayant Manglik said. A fall below the 100-dollar mark would wipe off nearly entire gain in the crude prices this year.

Euro Falls the Most in 8 Years on Reduced Bets for Higher Rate


The euro fell the most in almost eight years, pushing the currency to a six-month low against the U.S. dollar, as traders pared bets the European Central Bank will raise interest rates as the economy slows.

The euro dropped below $1.50 for the first time since February after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet yesterday said economic growth will be ``particularly weak'' through the third quarter. An index that tracks the dollar against the currencies of six U.S. trading partners touched the highest since February. Crude oil fell to a three-month low, silver reached its cheapest since January and copper headed for its biggest weekly drop since March, easing inflation concerns.

``We are now seeing a lot more negative surprises coming out of Europe than from the U.S., more so than any time during this credit shock,'' said Jim McCormick, head of currency strategy at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in London. ``At the same time, you've got some pretty strong capital inflows to the U.S. We kind of have the perfect circle of fundamentals bumping into strong technicals.''

Europe's shared currency tumbled 2.08 percent to $1.5005 at 5 p.m. in New York and reached $1.499, the lowest level since Feb. 26, from $1.5325 yesterday. The slide was the biggest one- day drop since Sept. 6, 2000, when the currency dropped the most since the 1999 introduction of the euro.

Against the yen, the European currency slipped 1.4 percent to 165.38, from 167.70. The dollar rose 0.67 percent to 110.18 yen after touching 110.36, the strongest since Jan. 2.

Moving Average

The euro's decline below $1.53 and the break of the 200-day moving average at $1.5226 ``marks a significant change in sentiment for the dollar,'' pointing to a further decline to $1.46, Kevin Edgeley, a London-based technical analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., wrote in a report today. It was the first time the euro fell below the 200-day moving average since 2006.

Since reaching a record high of $1.6038 on July 15, the euro has dropped 6.4 percent. The so-called trading envelopes, which measure how far from the mean a price has strayed, show the euro's decline has doubled the typical changes versus the dollar in the past 20 days.

``The most important aspect of the dramatic collapse in the euro dollar is the absence of confirmation from other markets,'' said David Woo, global head of currency strategy at Barclays Capital Inc. in London. ``None of the typical drivers of the euro-dollar in the past couple of years could have accounted for the magnitude of this move, which leads one to conclude that this is a technical-driven move. From that point of view, we do not think that this move is sustainable.''

`Undervalued'

The euro is about 2.5 percent ``undervalued'' against the dollar, according to Barclay's models, Woo wrote in a research note to clients today.

The European currency has declined 3.6 percent against the dollar in its fourth weekly decline, the worst losing streak since May 2007. Against the yen, the U.S. currency has advanced 2.2 percent, its biggest weekly gain in almost two months.

The Dollar Index on the ICE futures exchange reached 75.903 today, the highest since Feb. 21.

Mohamed El-Erian, co-chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., said the U.S. government's efforts to support Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will lead to greater Treasury issuance and a weaker dollar.

``It's ultimately inflationary as long as the global economy doesn't collapse,'' El-Erian said in an interview on Bloomberg Radio.

Russian Ruble

South African's rand led losses among the most-traded currencies as the prices of gold and platinum dropped, reducing prospects for export earnings from the country's biggest exports. The greenback rose to a six-month high against the Australian dollar, and advanced to the highest since September against the New Zealand dollar on speculation the central banks will cut borrowing costs.

Russia's ruble fell by the most in 2 1/2 years against a dollar-euro basket used by the government after Georgia's Interior Ministry said four Russian fighter-jets entered Georgian airspace and bombed the towns of Gori and Kareli, boosting the risk of war. The ruble dropped as much as 0.8 percent against the basket.

The pound fell below $1.93 for the first time since March 2007 as the Bank of England kept its main interest rate steady at 5 percent yesterday after inflation accelerated and the economy teetered on the brink of a recession. It has dropped 2.7 percent this week to $1.9212, its biggest weekly drop in three years.

`No Bias'

Trichet said yesterday he has ``no bias'' or ``pre- commitment'' toward future rate movements after the central bank left the main refinancing rate at 4.25 percent. He told reporters in Frankfurt that while inflation remains a threat, risks to economic growth are ``materializing.''

European retail sales dropped by the most in at least 13 years in June, the European Union said on Aug. 5. Consumer confidence slid in July by the most since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, the European Commission said July 30.

``This is the beginning of a new chapter for the dollar as Trichet and other central banks are paying more attention to the downside risk to growth,'' said Dustin Reid, a senior currency strategist at ABN Amro Bank NV in Chicago. ``The decline of oil prices is a significant driver behind this dollar rally because it enables other central banks to turn their eyes away from inflation and focus on growth.''

Traders pared bets the ECB will lift rates a second time this year after increasing its main rate by a quarter-point last month. The implied yield on the December interest rate futures, an indication of expectations, retreated 2 basis points to 4.94 percent today.

Oil, Metals, Crops

Crude oil, metal and crop prices fell as the dollar climbed, reducing the appeal of commodities as a currency hedge. Oil has declined to $115.15 a barrel since touching the record of $147.27 on July 11.

The euro-dollar exchange rate and oil have had a correlation of 0.9 in the past year, according to Bloomberg calculations. A reading of 1 would mean they moved in lockstep.

Fresh record for euro inflation

Rising fuel costs have sparked protests from hauliers
Eurozone inflation jumped to 4.1% in the year to July, the highest since the measurements began in 1997, according to EU statistics office Eurostat.

Inflation in June in the 15 nation bloc was 4.0%, also well above the European Central Bank's 2.0% target.

Meanwhile, unemployment in the euro zone has unexpectedly risen, a sign that economic growth is slowing.

Balancing the risks of rising prices and a downturn pose a challenge for European Central Bank policymakers.

Eurostat revised its May unemployment number up from 7.2% to 7.3% and said it had remained at that level in June.

Spain, hit hard by a housing slowdown, saw unemployment soar to 10.7% - the highest among euro nations and in the 27-nation European Union.

In Germany, Europe's largest economy, the rate was 7.3%.

Rate peak?

The ECB acted earlier this month to control inflation by increasing its key interest rate for the first time in a year to counter the effects of rising food and fuel costs.

Rates rose to 4.25% from 4%.

However, analysts say the central bank may have to hold fire on further rate increases as the European economy slows and companies cut jobs.

Soaring fuel and food prices have limited consumer spending and a strong euro has hurt exports.

"The further increase in Eurozone inflation in July will intensify the ECB's already alarming concern about inflation," said Martin Van Vliet, economist at ING Bank.

"However, with oil prices off their peak and downward momentum in economic activity gathering pace, dampening inflationary pressures in the medium term, the most likely path for interest rates is to be on hold for the rest of the year."

Fears of European Slowdown Weaken the Euro

FRANKFURT — The euro tumbled Friday to near the $1.50 mark — its lowest level against the dollar since February — amid new signs that the European economy was slowing.

The decline in the euro helped to send oil prices to a three-month low on Friday in New York trading. Crude oil fell $4.82 a barrel to settle at $115.20 in New York trading.

In Europe, the latest indication of a slowdown came with a report that the Italian economy had unexpectedly shrank in the second quarter, adding to the sentiment that the European Central Bank was now more likely to cut, rather than raise, interest rates at its next meeting.

The euro fell to $1.5004 Friday before rallying slightly, atop a similar slide Thursday. The euro hit a record high of slightly more than $1.60 on July 15, a week after the European Central Bank bucked the trend of the world’s major central banks and raised its benchmark interest rate.

“There’s a real capitulation under way,” David Gilmore, partner at Foreign Exchange Analytics in Essex, Conn., told The Associated Press on Friday. “In 24 hours it’s gone from $1.55 to $1.50, which is highly unusual. That changes your game plan for the marketplace.”

The stronger dollar also helped ease concerns that a conflict between Georgia and Russia could disrupt oil supplies in the Caspian regions.

“Energy demand destruction and the dollar return have formed a quiet alliance to bring the oil market down, and today the louder of the two is the dollar,” Peter Beutel, president of trading consultants Cameron Hanover in New Canaan, Conn., told Reuters.

The dramatic drop was ignited by a warning from the European Central Bank on Thursday that high energy costs and more sluggish global growth were finally taking a toll on the 15-nation euro zone, an economy that had seemed remarkably resistant to the turmoil around it for most of this year.

With inflation probably past its peak, most economists now believe the bank’s interest rate increase of July will be its last for the year, and the bank will begin lowering borrowing costs next year. By then, bank watchers believe, the central bank will have firm evidence that inflation, now running at an annual rate of slightly more than 4 percent, will fall back to its informal target of 2 percent.

Since lower interest rates diminish the appeal of euro-denominated assets, the euro tends to edge downward when the prospect of higher interest rates recedes.

“The currency markets had been rewarding hawkish central banks for most of the year, but as inflation becomes less of a concern that sentiment ebbs,” said Simon Derrick, head of currency research at Bank of New York Mellon in London.

On Thursday, in announcing that the bank would hold rates steady, the president of the central bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, acknowledged that the region’s economy was straining under the pressure of high energy prices and slower global growth.

In part, currency experts believe the recovery of the dollar reflects an inevitable swing back from a phase of acute weakness, when every bit of bad news out of the United States — ranging from the collapse of Bear Stearns in March to the bailout last month of the mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — seemed to pound it down further.

“At this point, the dollar has fallen a lot,” said Kenneth Rogoff, a professor at Harvard and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund. “Going down sharply further would require a real crisis.”

With a history of resilience, the United States economy now looks like it could skirt a recession, while the odds of Europe enduring one, however brief, have risen measurably in the last month.

The Italian economy, chronically stagnant over the last decade, shrank in the second quarter by 0.3 percent, according to the government data.

Another quarter of decline would mark the country’s fourth recession — defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth — in a decade.

More bad news appears increasingly likely this coming week in the form of data on growth in Germany and the 15-nation euro area.

Many economists believe the German economy, the engine of the region, may have contracted in the second quarter after blazing ahead by 1.5 percent in the first three months of the year. Much of that growth reflected technical factors like construction projects that will not be repeated. But the European Central Bank said Thursday that the fall-off in growth also stemmed from higher energy prices and cooling demand for German exports worldwide.

“Until now, the severity of Europe’s problems have been outweighed by what happened in the United States,” said Stephen Jen, global head of currency research at Morgan Stanley in London.

Building blocks for Euro bank

The ECB is responsible for the monetary policy of 15 countries


The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt has been celebrating its 10th birthday this year. But as Chris Bowlby discovered, the bank's troubled plans for a new headquarters could be a portent of tricky times ahead.

European Central Bank
The ECB is responsible for the monetary policy of 15 countries

I had expected a grand approach road, rows of expensive cars and smartly suited security guards, but what I first noticed were the rabbits.

Just in front of what I had been told was the Euro Tower - the European Central Bank's main building in the centre of Frankfurt - is a simple park with benches, shrubs and, yes, happily nibbling rabbits.

Was this really it?

A garish plastic sign in the shape of a Euro standing incongruously among the shrubs suggested I had come to the right place.

But as I wandered around the streets at the base of the tower, all I could see was the entrance to a cafe, an amusement arcade with slot machines and what looked like a laundrette.

Then, at last, an entrance of sorts behind swing doors and a little shop advertising itself as a visitor centre.

Anxious memories

Virtually deserted it sold a strange selection of gifts including, for the really keen, the memoirs of the bank's former chief economist, Otmar Issing, and plastic bags filled with what looked to me like bedding for pet animals.

It was, the shopkeeper said, in fact the shredded remains of thousands of bank notes taken out of circulation.


The very modest style of today's Euro Tower continues that tradition of deliberately low-key central banking

He assured me earnestly that such bags were very popular with foreign tourists.

But not, I suspect, with Germans, who have very long and anxious memories when it comes to the destruction of money.

For decades Germany's severe anti-inflationary policy was based on folk memory of the hyper inflation of the 1920s Weimar Republic, which disastrously undermined political and social stability.

Or the years at the end of the Third Reich, when the only valuable currency was cigarettes.

And that anxious memory fed into the deliberately low-key style of post-war German central banking.

The Bundesbank, when it ran the Deutschmark, was always housed in modest offices in a Frankfurt suburb.

Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the ECBJean-Claude Trichet has been president of the ECB since 2003
Jean-Claude Trichet has been president of the ECB since 2003

And once when I went to see its former head, Helmut Schlesinger, who lived in a suburban house and often went to work on public transport, he told me he felt most accountable to the residents of his home village in southern Germany.

They would wag their fingers at him when he came to visit and ask: "Helmut, are you still looking after our money properly?"

So the very modest style of today's Euro Tower continues that tradition of deliberately low-key central banking and - whisper it elsewhere in Europe - symbolises what is still a very Germanic monetary policy.

And attempts are being made to pass the policy onto younger generations.

The bank's educational materials feature a trendy young couple, Anne and Alex, vanquishing an ugly inflation monster as they learn that price stability will enable them to buy more CDs.

Economic prospects

This approach worked well in the first 10 years of the European bank's existence as the economic climate has generally been favourable for all Europeans.

But as economic prospects worsen, there is an uneasy feeling that the supposed monetary solidarity that binds the single currency's 15-member states will be tested more severely than ever.

And if the bank itself wanted uncomfortable proof of this new era, it has found it while trying to move up in the property market.


Whatever the bank may say about its anti-inflationary zeal, prices for building materials are shooting up

As I left the visitor centre and its strange souvenirs, I noticed a video screen mounted on a wall with eye catching images of a new sky scraper.

This - the commentary proudly stated - would, in a few years, be the bank's new home.

Following its first successful years there were perhaps some among the bank's multi-national management who felt that a rather more striking HQ was appropriate.
The bank is based in Frankfurt, the Eurozone's largest financial centre
Land was bought - the current Euro Tower is merely rented - and an architectural competition was held.

The Austrian winners, who had clearly been on a central banking course in baffling jargon, promised a multi-faceted building structure with the economical topology of a double slab high rise.

On hold

But what has been far from economical is the cost of trying to build it. When the bank tried to find a builder none came forward with a remotely acceptable price.

Whatever the bank may say about its anti-inflationary zeal, prices for building materials are shooting up.

Major building firms, global players these days, apparently believe that in the current economic climate they will make much more profit in say the Middle East than in Europe.

European Central Bank
The bank is based in Frankfurt, the Eurozone's largest financial centre

So embarrassment all round, as the bank's relocation plans have had to be put on hold.

The Italian and French governments - who like grand public sector projects and favour looser monetary policy to counteract economic downturn - might have advised the bank just to borrow the extra and go ahead anyway.

They like the idea that the European Central Bank is going to become a bit less strict in its policies as Europeans try to weather the current economic storm.

But I suspect that many Germans are quite pleased that whatever the economic weather the bank will remain for now in its modest, reassuring home, with contented rabbits down below, anti-inflationary hawks perched in the offices above.

And Europe's money managed as cautiously and consistently as possible.

Sunday, August 3, 2008

Chevron's Q2 profit rises as record crude prices offset refining loss


Friday, U.S. oil giant Chevron Corp. (CVX: News, Chart, Quote ) reported 11% rise in profit for the second quarter, as record crude prices boosted earnings at its exploration and production business and offset a loss from its refining operations. Chevron followed its bigger rival Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM: News, Chart, Quote ) in posting quarterly earnings lower than Wall Street estimates.

Like its peers, Chevron was also expected to report higher second-quarter profit amid soaring oil and gas prices. Though rising crude prices are benefiting oil companies' upstream business, the margins to produce gasoline have plummeted, with refiners struggling to pass through higher crude costs to customers. As a result, Chevron's refining business fell to a loss as the oil and gas major wasn't able to raise the prices of gasoline and other refined products to keep pace with rising costs for oil.

The San Ramon, California-based Chevron's second-quarter net income grew to $5.98 billion or $2.90 per share from $5.38 billion or $2.52 per share in the year-ago period. On average, 15 analysts polled by First Call/Thomson Financial expected earnings of $3.03 per share for the quarter.

Quarterly sales and other operating revenues in the second quarter 2008 were $80.96 billion, up from $54.34 billion in the year-ago quarter. Total revenues and other income climbed to $82.99 billion from $56.09 billion in the same quarter last year.

However, Chevron was not able to fully exploit the benefit of soaring oil prices as it produced lesser compared to last year. Worldwide oil-equivalent production was 2.54 million barrels per day in the second quarter, lower than 2.63 million barrels per day recorded in the same period previous year.

Fire damage at one of its refineries hampered its production. In addition, energy companies are struggling to increase production as oil-rich governments restrict access to the world's largest fields and there is growing competition from emerging- countries like India and China. Moreover, a surge in oil's price reduced the oil companies' output in countries where production-sharing contracts give a greater share of crude to governments when prices rise.

More Americans feel gas price pain


NEW YORK -- The high price of gas is taking a financial toll on an increasing number of American households, according to a poll released Friday.

A CNN/Opinion Research poll found that 75% of respondents said the price at the pump is a "financial hardship." That finding was up from 60% in late April and 69% in April 2006.

The poll, which has a margin of error of 4.5%, was conducted July 27-29 and involved more than 500 respondents.

In the poll, 27% said high petroleum prices were causing a "severe hardship" on their standards of living. Another 48% said gas prices caused a "moderate hardship."

Families with middle and lower incomes are feeling the sting more acutely, as rising gas and food prices spill into the core inflation rate, according to Heidi Shierholz, an economist at Washington, D.C.'s Economic Policy Institute, considered a liberal research firm.

"Households that use a higher proportion of their income on those two things are going to face the biggest hit to their take-home income," she said.

On Friday, the average price for a gallon of unleaded gasoline was $3.898, according to motorist group AAA. While that was down more than 21 cents from a record high of $4.114 a gallon on July 17, it was more than $1 higher than the $2.865 level of a year ago.

Americans remain largely pessimistic about the financial drain at the pump, according to a separate CNN/Opinion Research poll released Friday of more than 500 people.

Asked if they think the price of gasoline will be higher a year from now, about the same or lower, 51% of 514 respondents said they think prices will be higher.

In the same survey, 52% of respondents predicted gas prices will never be lower.

The higher gas prices come as many Americans may face reduced hours and even job losses in the economic slowdown, Shierholz said.

"The job market is not going to turn around any time soon," she said, and so those struggling with higher gas prices "won't find solace in the job market for quite some time."

And despite the hardships posed by high prices, consumers aren't likely to drastically alter their driving habits, said Chris Lafakis, an associate economist at Moody's Economy.com, an economic analysis firm based in West Chester, Pa.

If people have to drive 15 miles to work, for example, they're likely to continue the same commutes in the short term until they find other ways to get around, such as mass transit or more fuel-efficient cars, Lafakis said.

"In the short term, consumer grumbling is all bark and no bite," he said

European currency falls to 15-day low against Japanese yen


During early deals on Friday, the European currency traded down against its major counterparts. The euro declined to a 15-day low versus the Japanese yen, 8-day low against the British pound and a 2-day low versus the US dollar.

Adding to euro's downward pressure, a report showed that German retail sales fell more than expected in June. German retail sales declined 3.9% year-on-year in real terms in June, much greater than the 0.8% slump expected by economists. The decline is in contrast to a 1% increase in May, revised up from the initially reported 0.7%. In nominal terms the increase was 1.2% in June compared to a 3.8% rise in the previous month.

Against the US dollar, the European currency traded down in early deals on Friday. At about 1:25 am ET, the euro-dollar pair touched a 2-day low of 1.5552, compared to 1.5605 hit late New York Thursday.

The European single currency declined to an 8-day low of 0.7850 against the British pound at about 1:15 am Eastern Time Friday. The euro-sterling pair closed Thursday's North American session at 0.7867.

Against the Swiss franc, the euro is currently trading at 1.6326, down from Thursday's close of 1.6339.

The European currency showed weakness against the Japanese yen in early deals on Thursday. At about 1:40 am Eastern Time, the euro-yen pair slipped to 167.33, down from yesterday's close of 168.42. This set a 15- day low for the pair.

Looking ahead, the manufacturing PMI reports from Germany, France, Italy and the Euro-zone for the month of July are expected in the upcoming hours.

The PMI for UK manufacturing industry is due at 4.30 am ET. Economists are expecting a reading of 45.5.

Across the Atlantic, the US change in nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, ISM manufacturing and construction spending reports are scheduled to be released.

US STOCKS-Wall Street dips on GM loss, oil, jobs data

* Oil rises on tension about Iran's nuclear work

* Hefty loss at GM adds to U.S. auto sector woes

* Biogen sinks biotechs, pulls down Nasdaq

* Dow down 0.5 percent; Nasdaq, S&P off about 0.6 pct (Updates to close, changes byline)

NEW YORK, Aug 1 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Friday as a $15.5 billion quarterly loss from General Motors (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and a rise in oil prices added to fears the economy could slip into recession and concerns about corporate earnings.

A government report showing U.S. employers cut jobs for the seventh straight month in July added to market worries, though the decline in payrolls was not as severe as had been feared. The report also showed the jobless rate jumped to its highest level in four years. For more see [ID:nN01429062].

General Motors' (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) second-quarter loss was the latest example of how rising oil prices are hurting consumer spending. Its shares slumped 7.6 percent to $10.23 and weighed on the Dow and S&P.[ID:nN01288721].

Sliding global metal prices and weak manufacturing data around the world knocked the shares of aluminum maker Alcoa (AA.N: Quote, Profile, Research) nearly 5 percent lower. Shares of Caterpillar (CAT.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the mining and heavy equipment maker, fell 2 percent. The two were the top drags on the Dow

EDF's Board Approves 12 Billion-Pound British Energy Offer


July 31 (Bloomberg) -- The board of Electricite de France SA, the world's largest owner of nuclear power stations, approved a 12 billion-pound ($23.8 billion) offer for British Energy Group Plc, a person with direct knowledge of the decision said.

EDF may offer about 765 pence a share in cash, or a mixture of cash and securities, said two people familiar with the plan, who declined to be identified because the talks are confidential. The bid would be 5 percent above today's close of 729.5 pence and 13 percent more than the close on May 15 before British Energy said it received approaches.

The Paris-based utility, which already has 7.9 million customers in the U.K., will get eight U.K. atomic plant sites with potential for building new reactors. The U.K. government, which owns a 35.6 percent stake, wants investment in new nuclear plants and is identifying sites for reactors.

``For EDF, it's a wholly logical step,'' said Ingo Becker, an analyst at Kepler Equities in Frankfurt, in a telephone interview today. ``The U.K. is one of the few countries in Europe encouraging new nuclear build.''

Electricite de France, which announces earnings tomorrow, will hold a press conference in Paris at 8:45 a.m. local time. Francois Molho, a spokesman for the company, declined to comment on the reason.

The French utility will have to give up control of some of sites owned by the East Kilbride, Scotland-based British Energy, two people familiar with the plan said yesterday.

Nuclear Sites

U.K. Energy Minister Malcolm Wicks said in a Bloomberg Television interview on April 17 that Britain is wary of a monopoly company or business group having control of all new nuclear power stations in Britain.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown said on June 22 in Saudi Arabia that he backs new atomic plants. In 2007 nuclear reactors produced 19 percent of the U.K.'s power. While Brown favors the technology because it emits less carbon dioxide, the gas blamed for global warming, than natural gas and coal-fed stations, he hasn't set a growth target for the industry.

A report produced for the government by Jackson Consulting recommended that any new capacity should be developed first at one of the country's existing nuclear sites. Those are owned by British Energy and the U.K. Nuclear Decommissioning Authority, an agency set up to run and clean up older plants.

Those locations already have the necessary road and rail links, access to water and grid connections, and local communities may be more likely to have the required skills.

New Capacity

``There is no guarantee that EDF will have exclusive use of the sites,'' said Florence Roche, a fixed-income credit analyst at Societe Generale SA in Paris. Without that exclusivity, it makes the deal even more expensive, she said yesterday. ``At the level of valuation reported by press, the assets are not very attractive.''

EDF recently bought land adjacent to the Wylfa power station, owned by the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority, as a backup plan in case it misses out on British Energy. The French power producer has said it wants to build as many as five nuclear reactors in the U.K.

British Energy in November signed an agreement with the national grid operator to connect six new nuclear reactors on four southern England sites to the country's power transmission network from 2016.

Centrica Plc may acquire about 25 percent of British Energy as part of the transaction, the people said.

Shares Rise

EDF rose 1.66 euros, or 3.1 percent, to 55.95 euros in Paris trading. British Energy rose 9.5 pence, or 1.3 percent, to 729.5 pence in London.

The Financial Times reported today that part of the EDF bid will be in the form of contingent value rights, securities which have future payouts dependent on the performance of British Energy after it has been taken over. It said these securities are less well-known to U.K. investors than to those in the U.S. and continental Europe, and may complicate negotiations.

The Financial Times said EDF's proposed bid includes an all-cash version which would be at a lower value than an alternative offer of cash plus CVRs. Dow Jones reported today that EDF's mixed offer of cash and securities would be 700 pence a share plus CVRs, as an alternative to a 765 pence cash bid.

Yearly euro inflation at record high of 4.1%


BRUSSELS, Belgium (AP) -- Yearly inflation in the 15 euro nations rose to a record high of 4.1 percent in July, the EU statistical agency Eurostat reported Thursday.
Inflation is becoming a headache across Europe as workers call for more money to meet surging fuel prices.

Inflation is becoming a headache across Europe as workers call for more money to meet surging fuel prices.

Prices have not climbed as fast since inflation records started in 1996 for the countries that eventually formed the euro.

Soaring fuel and food prices are Europe's biggest economic problem, eating into household spending -- one of the engines of economic growth -- as people steer away from major purchases and luxury goods.

Accelerating prices and signs that growth is stalling create a major dilemma for the European Central Bank, which acted last month to cool inflation by hiking borrowing costs for the first time in a year.

But the bank may have to hold back from more interest rate increases as the European economy stumbles and companies slash staff.

Eurostat reported that the jobless rate in the 15 countries that share the euro had risen to 7.3 percent in May and June from a year ago. It revised upward an earlier estimate of 7.2 percent for May as unemployment worsened from a record low it hit in December 2007.
Spain, hit hard by a housing slowdown, saw jobless lines increase sharply from June last year as the unemployment rate soared to 10.7 percent -- the highest among euro nations and in the 27-nation European Union. Nearly a quarter of Spanish young people do not have a job.

Ireland also saw a major increase in unemployment as a long boom comes to a sharp end. It reported unemployment of 5.7 percent last month.

Europe's largest economy, Germany, posted a jobless rate of 7.3 percent while France saw 7.5 percent.

Rising unemployment may serve as cold comfort to the ECB, which has pleaded with governments, employers and workers in euro nations to try and avoid wage hikes that could fuel an inflation spiral.

Slowing growth and the risk of further job losses may hold back wage demands despite workers' calls for their pay to keep pace with rocketing prices.

Ground staff at German airline Lufthansa AG have gone on strike seeking a 9.8 percent pay increase.

Inflation is fast becoming a political headache across Europe as workers call for more money and fishermen and truck drivers protest, sometimes violently, that surging fuel prices threaten their livelihoods.

Global oil prices have quadrupled in the last seven years, hitting Europeans hard because they also pay heavy taxes on fuel that can cost them some €80 ($126) to fill up a car's tank

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NEW YORK, Aug 1 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar climbed to five-week peaks against the euro and three-week highs against the British pound on Friday as better-than-expected economic data allayed worries about a much sharper slowdown.

The yen, on the other hand, gained broadly, benefiting from heightened stress in financial markets on news that General Motors (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) had hefty losses in the second quarter. That dragged U.S. stocks lower and triggered safe-haven bids for Treasuries.

"U.S. dollar sentiment has certainly changed for the better over the last couple of weeks," said Mark Frey, head foreign exchange trader at Custom House, a global payments dealer in Victoria, British Columbia.

"The U.S. economy has gone through some tough phases, but the jobs number was negative, but still better than expected. I think, more importantly, recent consumer confidence numbers and leading indicators, which are more forward-looking, have been more positive," he added.

Friday's data showed that U.S. employers eliminated 51,000 jobs in July, lower than market expectations for a payrolls decline of 75,000. A separate report said U.S. factory activity was unchanged in July, compared with the previous month, but above market forecasts

Dollar Rises to One-Month High on View U.S. Slowdown Spreading

Aug. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose to a one-month high against the euro as the pace of job erosion in the U.S. slowed while a decline in German retail sales indicated economic weakness is spreading to other developed countries.

The currency increased for a third week against the euro, its longest stretch of gains since May 2007. The Australian and New Zealand dollars fell against all of the other major currencies as reports showed Australia's manufacturing contracted and business confidence in New Zealand fell.

``The labor market hasn't changed dramatically, but certainly it's a relief that things haven't gotten worse,'' said Thomas Benfer, vice president of foreign exchange at BMO Capital Markets in New York. ``It looks like the global economy is slowing down. We're not going to see a surge in the dollar, but it's moving in the right direction.''

The dollar appreciated 1 percent this week to $1.5564 per euro, from $1.5709 on July 25. It touched $1.5515, the strongest since July 24. The dollar dropped 0.1 percent to 107.71 yen, from 107.84. Japan's currency gained 1 percent to 167.55 per euro, for the biggest weekly gain since early May. It touched 166.99 yesterday, the highest level since July 17.

The Federal Reserve will keep its target lending rate at 2 percent on Aug. 5, while the European Central Bank will hold its main refinancing rate at 4.25 percent two days later, according to forecasts of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Weaker Pound

The pound fell to $1.9727, the lowest level since July 10, as an index of British manufacturing dropped in July to the weakest since December 1998. The Bank of England is forecast to hold its target rate at 5 percent on Aug. 7.

``Sterling at current levels is a good sell,'' said Meg Browne, a senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York, in an interview on Bloomberg Television.

The Aussie dropped 2.6 percent this week after touching 93.02 cents yesterday, the lowest since May 2, as PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Australian Industry Group said the manufacturing index fell to 46.9 in July. The Reserve Bank of Australia will keep its cash target at 7.25 percent on Aug. 6, according to the median forecast of 24 economists.

New Zealand's currency, known as the kiwi, decreased 2 percent after reaching 72.47, the weakest since Sept. 19. A net 43.2 percent of companies expect the economy will worsen over the next 12 months, up from 38.7 percent in June, ANZ National Bank Ltd. reported this week.

U.S. Payrolls

U.S. payrolls shrank in July for a seventh straight month, decreasing by 51,000, matching the previous month's decline, the Labor Department said yesterday in Washington. The median forecast of 79 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a reduction of 75,000. The unemployment rate rose to 5.7 percent, the highest since March 2004, from 5.5 percent.

``The market will start to focus on the rise of the unemployment rate, which could cause concerns about the weakness of the economy,'' said Dustin Reid, a senior currency strategist at ABN Amro Bank NV in Chicago. ``I'm not ready to call a bottom in the dollar just yet.'' The dollar may weaken to $1.58 per euro in the next couple of weeks, said Reid.

The U.S. economy shrank at the end of 2007 and grew less than forecast in this year's second quarter, figures from the Commerce Department showed July 31.

The 15-nation euro fell yesterday versus the dollar as Germany's Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said retail sales, adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings, dropped 1.4 percent in June after increasing 0.5 percent in the prior month. The median forecast of 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a decrease of 0.5 percent.

Trichet on Rates

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said on July 3 that he had ``no bias'' or ``pre-commitment'' after policy makers increased the main refinancing rate a quarter-percentage point.

``We're seeing the European numbers coming up very soft, so that will put pressure on the ECB not to do anything until the end of the year,'' said Alan Kabbani, a senior currency trader at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. ``I'm thinking a little bit more positively on the dollar.''

The yen rose to a two-week high of 166.99 against the euro yesterday as slowing global growth prompted traders to pare holdings of higher-yielding assets funded in Japan.

Japan's currency rose to a two-month high of 100.07 per Australian dollar and a four-month high of 77.90 per New Zealand dollar on speculation investors reduced carry trades in which they get funds in countries with low borrowing costs and invest where returns are higher. The target lending rate of 0.5 percent in Japan compares with 8 percent in New Zealand.

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