India to grow at over 7 pc in the current fiscal: PMEAC

Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) said that it expects the country's economy to grow at over seven per cent in the current fiscal as it has already started showing signs of recovery.

"Seven per cent plus is what my 2009-10 overall forecast is...I think it has already started recovering in my own assessment," PMEAC Chairman Suresh Tendulkar told on the sidelines of a conference on broadband in New Delhi on Friday.


He further said it expects rebound in the economy after September as the worst was over.


"I have been maintaining that the worst is already over, (I expect) good recovery after September," Tendulkar added.


Asked if the contracting industrial production worried him, he said the revised industrial production numbers were higher than the provisional ones, so it did not bother him much.


Despite three stimulus packages announced by the government, the Indian economy grew by 5.3 per cent in the third quarter of the last fiscal, its lowest rate in over five years, against a whopping 8.9 per cent a year ago.


In the first nine months of last fiscal, the economy grew by 6.9 per cent.



For whole of 2008-09, the advance estimates of Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) pegged the economic growth at 7.1 per cent, which seems a tough task in the wake of dismal industrial growth numbers.



On account of slackening demand hitting Indian trade more than anticipated, PMEAC lowered the country's growth estimate to 6.5-7 per cent from the earlier estimate of 7.1 per cent for 2008-09.


To boost the economy, the government came out with three stimulus packages in the month of December, January and in the interim budget, providing incentives to various sectors.


The Reserve Bank also took monetary easing measures by infusing more than Rs 4 lakh crore since October.


However, industrial growth turned negative in October, December and in January.


Besides, exports declined for the fifth consecutive month in February after it had a good run in the first half of 2008-09, growing by over 30 per cent.


The orders got cancelled and exporters found it difficult to get new bookings, thereafter, with demands slackening overseas due to global financial crisis.


As a result, from October onward, exports have been on a decline, with export in February falling by 21.7 per cent, the lowest in 13 years.